Estimator

Estimate your recoverable Stripe Connect total

Two inputs produce a modelled range of what Stripe Connect platforms your size typically leave stranded: monthly refunded orders and average charge value. Ranges stay wide deliberately — refund mixes vary enormously — and everything here is labelled modelled until the scanner replaces estimation with your actual numbers.

The formula, shown plainly

Recoverable ≈ refunded orders × average value × (1 − fee share) × leakage rate, where leakage rate draws from the published 0.8%–2.4% band for flag-omission losses. The exposure framing you may have seen elsewhere — typically 1–3% of every Connect refund — describes the same phenomenon at different denominators; treat both as ranges describing typical platforms, never measurements.

Worked example: 400 refunds/mo × $80 × fee 10%
Refund flow
$32,000/mo
Seller-side transfers
$28,800
Midpoint stranding (1.6%)
≈ $460/mo
Annualised midpoint
$5,530

What pushes you up the range

Destination charges with missing flags on secondary paths. Partial-refund-heavy mixes (rentals, ticketing, services). Fast payout schedules eroding recovery windows before anyone looks. Cross-border loads adding FX drag on top. Any two together justify assuming the upper band until measured.

From estimate to truth

Paste last quarter’s charge.refunded events into the scanner: production detectors return exact stranded totals by cause plus a CSV of affected charges. No account, no key, nothing stored. The estimate frames the question; measurement answers it.

Common questions

Why a range rather than a number?

Estimation precedes measurement by nature. The band is honest about mix variance; the scanner removes it entirely within minutes.

Is my data stored anywhere?

No — pasted data is processed transiently and discarded. The scanner never accepts API keys by design.